TL Natural Gas Holdings Limited (HKG:8536) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 32% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days were the cherry on top of the stock's 515% gain in the last year, which is nothing short of spectacular.
Since its price has surged higher, given close to half the companies operating in Hong Kong's Specialty Retail industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.4x, you may consider TL Natural Gas Holdings as a stock to potentially avoid with its 1.6x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
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What Does TL Natural Gas Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?
TL Natural Gas Holdings has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this respectable revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for TL Natural Gas Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.How Is TL Natural Gas Holdings' Revenue Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like TL Natural Gas Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 15%. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 53% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 15% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is pretty similar based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.
With this information, we find it interesting that TL Natural Gas Holdings is trading at a high P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends would weigh down the share price eventually.
What Does TL Natural Gas Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?
TL Natural Gas Holdings' P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We didn't expect to see TL Natural Gas Holdings trade at such a high P/S considering its last three-year revenue growth has only been on par with the rest of the industry. Right now we are uncomfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for TL Natural Gas Holdings (2 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.