It's been a pretty great week for Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP) shareholders, with its shares surging 16% to US$4.05 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$1.1b, statutory losses exploded to US$0.03 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ardagh Metal Packaging from six analysts is for revenues of US$4.99b in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 3.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Ardagh Metal Packaging forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.042 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.97b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.052 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at US$3.93, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ardagh Metal Packaging at US$5.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Ardagh Metal Packaging's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 9.7% p.a. growth over the last three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.0% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ardagh Metal Packaging is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ardagh Metal Packaging. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Ardagh Metal Packaging going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Ardagh Metal Packaging that you should be aware of.
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Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.(NYSE:AMBP)の株主にとって、今週はかなり素晴らしい週になりました。直近の四半期決算発表以降、株価は16%上昇し、4.05ドルに達しました。しかし、業績全体としては、非常に残念な結果でした。売上高は予想通りの11億ドルでしたが、法定損失は1株当たり0.03ドルに跳ね上がりました。分析家たちは通常、毎回の決算発表で予測を更新し、彼らの見解が変化したかどうか、または気を付けるべき新しい懸念事項があるかどうかを判断することができます。そこで私たちは最新の法定予測を収集して、アナリストたちが来年に何を期待しているのかを見てみました。
最新の結果を考慮すると、6人のアナリストからのArdagh Metal Packagingに対する最新のコンセンサスは、2024年に49.9億ドルの売上高を予想しています。それが実現すれば、過去12か月間の売上高に対して3.4%の増加を意味します。すなわち、Ardagh Metal Packagingは法定利益を1株当たり0.042ドル報告することが予想されています。報告に先立ち、アナリストたちは2024年に49.7億ドルの売上高と1株当たり0.052ドルの利益をモデリングしていました。最新のEPS予測の大幅な下落を注目すると、センチメントが明らかに低下したことは間違いありません。
これらの予測の背景をより知りたい場合は、過去のパフォーマンスと、同じ業種の他の会社のパフォーマンスとの比較を見ることができます。Ardagh Metal Packagingの売上高成長は減速することが予想されており、2024年末までの年間成長率は4.6%に留まる見込みです。このことを、アナリストがカバーする業種の他の企業と対比すると、予想される収益の成長率が年間3.0%に留まることを考慮に入れると、遥かに低い水準であることがわかります。成長率の減速にもかかわらず、Ardagh Metal Packagingは業界全体よりも速い成長を見込まれています。
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オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。