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Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group (SHSE:600638) Earnings and Shareholder Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for the Last Five Years, but the Stock Surges 15% This Past Week

上海新黄浦実業グループ(SHSE:600638)の収益と株主還元は過去5年間下降傾向にありましたが、株価は先週15%急騰しました。

Simply Wall St ·  04/29 21:24

This week we saw the Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600638) share price climb by 15%. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. After all, the share price is down 50% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.

While the stock has risen 15% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group became profitable within the last five years. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.

We don't think that the 0.6% is big factor in the share price, since it's quite small, as dividends go. Revenue is actually up 38% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

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SHSE:600638 Earnings and Revenue Growth April 30th 2024

Take a more thorough look at Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group, it has a TSR of -46% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group shareholders are down 18% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 13%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group (1 is potentially serious) that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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