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Guangdong Shirongzhaoye's (SZSE:002016) Earnings Trajectory Could Turn Positive as the Stock Jumps 15% This Past Week

広東石荘兆業(SZSE:002016)の収益軌道は、この過去1週間に15%上昇したことでポジティブに転じる可能性があります。

Simply Wall St ·  04/29 22:52

Guangdong Shirongzhaoye Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002016) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 15% in the last week. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 36%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

While the last five years has been tough for Guangdong Shirongzhaoye shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Looking back five years, both Guangdong Shirongzhaoye's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 25% per year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 8% compound annual share price fall. The relatively muted share price reaction might be because the market expects the business to turn around.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SZSE:002016 Earnings Per Share Growth April 30th 2024

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Guangdong Shirongzhaoye, it has a TSR of -28% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While it's certainly disappointing to see that Guangdong Shirongzhaoye shares lost 10% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 13%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 5% over the last half decade. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Guangdong Shirongzhaoye that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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