Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRS) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Results clearly exceeded expectations, with a substantial revenue beat leading to smaller losses in what looks like a definite win for investors. Revenues were US$2.4m and the statutory loss per share was US$0.24, smaller than the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from seven analysts covering Aclaris Therapeutics is for revenues of US$8.50m in 2024. This implies a sizeable 73% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 31% to US$0.75. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$7.76m and losses of US$0.97 per share in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very favorable reduction to loss per share in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$1.84, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aclaris Therapeutics at US$3.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 82% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 45% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Aclaris Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$1.84, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Aclaris Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Aclaris Therapeutics (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant) .

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