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Tech Semiconductors Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:300046) 35% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

テック半導体株式会社(SZSE:300046)の株価が35%急騰しても、完全に理解できない

Simply Wall St ·  05/30 18:35

Tech Semiconductors Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300046) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 35% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 15% in the last twelve months.

Since its price has surged higher, Tech Semiconductors may be sending strong sell signals at present with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 11.1x, when you consider almost half of the companies in the Semiconductor industry in China have P/S ratios under 5.6x and even P/S lower than 2x aren't out of the ordinary. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:300046 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry May 30th 2024

How Tech Semiconductors Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Tech Semiconductors over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Tech Semiconductors, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Tech Semiconductors would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 11% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 25% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 35% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Tech Semiconductors is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Tech Semiconductors' P/S

Shares in Tech Semiconductors have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our examination of Tech Semiconductors revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Tech Semiconductors that you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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