When close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 31x, you may consider Keystone Technology Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:605588) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 69.9x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
For example, consider that Keystone TechnologyLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Keystone TechnologyLtd would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 41%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 64% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 38% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
With this information, we find it concerning that Keystone TechnologyLtd is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Final Word
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Keystone TechnologyLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Keystone TechnologyLtd (2 are a bit concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Keystone TechnologyLtd. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.