Lucas GC Limited (NASDAQ:LGCL) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 29% share price drop in the last month. To make matters worse, the recent drop has wiped out a year's worth of gains with the share price now back where it started a year ago.
Even after such a large drop in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Lucas GC's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18x is worth a mention when the median P/E in the United States is similar at about 17x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
Lucas GC certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
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How Is Lucas GC's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Lucas GC's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 134% last year. Although, its longer-term performance hasn't been as strong with three-year EPS growth being relatively non-existent overall. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 13% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
With this information, we find it interesting that Lucas GC is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
What We Can Learn From Lucas GC's P/E?
Lucas GC's plummeting stock price has brought its P/E right back to the rest of the market. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Lucas GC currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Lucas GC (1 is a bit concerning!) that we have uncovered.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Lucas GC, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.