By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, the Changjiang Publishing & Media Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600757) share price is up 56% in the last three years, clearly besting the market decline of around 26% (not including dividends).
Since the stock has added CN¥607m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the three years of share price growth, Changjiang Publishing & MediaLtd actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 2.0% per year.
Given the share price resilience, we don't think the (declining) EPS numbers are a good measure of how the business is moving forward, right now. So other metrics may hold the key to understanding what is influencing investors.
We note that the dividend is higher than it was preciously, so that may have assisted the share price. Sometimes yield-chasing investors will flock to a company if they think the dividend can grow over time.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
![earnings-and-revenue-growth](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240610/0-48a60c6245a1d0f4477d106f0b21dc28-0-6d7ce5a740eda04d115c1481571a30e8.png/big)
Take a more thorough look at Changjiang Publishing & MediaLtd's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Changjiang Publishing & MediaLtd, it has a TSR of 72% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Changjiang Publishing & MediaLtd shareholders are down 15% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 12%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 10%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Changjiang Publishing & MediaLtd better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Changjiang Publishing & MediaLtd you should be aware of.
But note: Changjiang Publishing & MediaLtd may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.