When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 17x, you may consider Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE:FOR) as a highly attractive investment with its 8x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times have been pleasing for Forestar Group as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
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How Is Forestar Group's Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Forestar Group would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 46% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 127% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the four analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 3.7% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 9.9% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.
In light of this, it's understandable that Forestar Group's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
What We Can Learn From Forestar Group's P/E?
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of Forestar Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for Forestar Group with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.
You might be able to find a better investment than Forestar Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.