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The Past Year for Ameren (NYSE:AEE) Investors Has Not Been Profitable

アメレン(nyse:aee)の投資家にとって過去1年間は利益を上げられませんでした

Simply Wall St ·  06/21 13:03

Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. Investors in Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 14%. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 25%. Looking at the longer term, the stock is down 13% over three years.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Even though the Ameren share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It seems quite likely that the market was expecting higher growth from the stock. But other metrics might shed some light on why the share price is down.

On the other hand, we're certainly perturbed by the 11% decline in Ameren's revenue. If the market sees the weak revenue as jeopardising EPS, that could explain the lower share price.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:AEE Earnings and Revenue Growth June 21st 2024

This free interactive report on Ameren's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Ameren's TSR for the last 1 year was -11%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Ameren shareholders are down 11% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 25%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.8%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Ameren (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant) .

We will like Ameren better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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