Investors in McCormick & Company, Incorporated (NYSE:MKC) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.3% to close at US$70.94 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues were US$1.6b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.68 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 15%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, McCormick's 15 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$6.68b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 2.4% to US$2.82. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.68b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.84 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$74.82. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic McCormick analyst has a price target of US$93.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$60.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.2% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.0% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - McCormick is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$74.82, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for McCormick going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for McCormick you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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