Despite an already strong run, Hongli Group Inc. (NASDAQ:HLP) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 32% in the last thirty days. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 23% over that time.
Since its price has surged higher, Hongli Group may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30.3x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
For instance, Hongli Group's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
How Is Hongli Group's Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Hongli Group would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 75% decrease to the company's bottom line. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 71% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 12% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Hongli Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
The strong share price surge has got Hongli Group's P/E rushing to great heights as well. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Hongli Group revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with Hongli Group (including 1 which is significant).
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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