Shareholders might have noticed that The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:SMPL) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.2% to US$36.13 in the past week. Simply Good Foods reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$335m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.41, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Simply Good Foods after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Simply Good Foods' ten analysts is for revenues of US$1.47b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 10% to US$1.61. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.05 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$40.00 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Simply Good Foods analyst has a price target of US$49.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$34.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Simply Good Foods' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 12% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.0% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Simply Good Foods is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Simply Good Foods' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Simply Good Foods. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Simply Good Foods going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Simply Good Foods' balance sheet, and whether we think Simply Good Foods is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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