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Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About China Railway Construction Heavy Industry Corporation Limited (SHSE:688425)?

中国鉄建重工業株式会社(SHSE:688425)について、株価が下落しているが財務面は良好。市場は中国鉄建重工業に間違っているのか?

Simply Wall St ·  06/30 20:41

With its stock down 7.1% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard China Railway Construction Heavy Industry (SHSE:688425). But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. In this article, we decided to focus on China Railway Construction Heavy Industry's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for China Railway Construction Heavy Industry is:

9.1% = CN¥1.5b ÷ CN¥17b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every CN¥1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of CN¥0.09.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of China Railway Construction Heavy Industry's Earnings Growth And 9.1% ROE

At first glance, China Railway Construction Heavy Industry's ROE doesn't look very promising. However, the fact that the company's ROE is higher than the average industry ROE of 6.9%, is definitely interesting. Having said that, China Railway Construction Heavy Industry's net income growth over the past five years is more or less flat. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with, just that it is higher than the industry average. Therefore, the low to flat growth in earnings could also be the result of this.

As a next step, we compared China Railway Construction Heavy Industry's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 9.5% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
SHSE:688425 Past Earnings Growth July 1st 2024

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is China Railway Construction Heavy Industry fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is China Railway Construction Heavy Industry Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 29% (or a retention ratio of 71%), China Railway Construction Heavy Industry hasn't seen much growth in its earnings. So there could be some other explanation in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

In addition, China Railway Construction Heavy Industry only recently started paying a dividend so the management must have decided the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that China Railway Construction Heavy Industry has some positive attributes. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a moderate ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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