It's not a stretch to say that China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited's (HKG:3969) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Hong Kong, where the median P/E ratio is around 9x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, China Railway Signal & Communication's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.
Does Growth Match The P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like China Railway Signal & Communication's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 2.0%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 13% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 8.0% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 16% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.
In light of this, it's curious that China Railway Signal & Communication's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Key Takeaway
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that China Railway Signal & Communication currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for China Railway Signal & Communication that you should be aware of.
You might be able to find a better investment than China Railway Signal & Communication. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com