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Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For NavInfo Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002405) Shares

NavInfo株式会社(SZSE:002405)の株には不快な驚きがあるかもしれません。

Simply Wall St ·  21:59

With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 4.3x in the Software industry in China, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about NavInfo Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002405) P/S ratio of 4.8x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

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SZSE:002405 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry July 12th 2024

What Does NavInfo's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

While the industry has experienced revenue growth lately, NavInfo's revenue has gone into reverse gear, which is not great. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on NavInfo.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like NavInfo's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 9.0% decrease to the company's top line. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 37% overall rise in revenue, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 15% each year as estimated by the eight analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 21% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that NavInfo's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our look at the analysts forecasts of NavInfo's revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. Circumstances like this present a risk to current and prospective investors who may see share prices fall if the low revenue growth impacts the sentiment.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for NavInfo with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

If you're unsure about the strength of NavInfo's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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