When you see that almost half of the companies in the Hospitality industry in the United States have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.3x, Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE:SHAK) looks to be giving off some sell signals with its 3x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

What Does Shake Shack's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Shake Shack could be doing better as it's been growing revenue less than most other companies lately. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to recover significantly, which has kept the P/S ratio from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Shake Shack's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 18%. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 110% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 14% per year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to only expand by 12% per annum, which is noticeably less attractive.

With this in mind, it's not hard to understand why Shake Shack's P/S is high relative to its industry peers. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.

The Key Takeaway

While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Shake Shack maintains its high P/S on the strength of its forecasted revenue growth being higher than the the rest of the Hospitality industry, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in revenues is quite remote, justifying the elevated P/S ratio. Unless the analysts have really missed the mark, these strong revenue forecasts should keep the share price buoyant.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Shake Shack that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com