While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the New China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (SHSE:601336) share price has gained 11% in the last three months. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. In fact, the share price is down 43%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
On a more encouraging note the company has added CN¥3.4b to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years over which the share price declined, New China Life Insurance's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 4.9% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 11% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
SHSE:601336 Earnings Per Share Growth July 14th 2024
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for New China Life Insurance the TSR over the last 5 years was -33%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 17% in the twelve months, New China Life Insurance shareholders did even worse, losing 21% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for New China Life Insurance you should know about.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
最近3ヶ月で、New China Life Insurance Company Ltd.(SHSE:601336)の株価が11%上昇したのは良いことですが、過去半世紀の間、この株式はあまり良いパフォーマンスを発揮していません。実際、株価は43%下落し、インデックス・ファンドを購入することで得られるリターンを大きく下回っています。
広範な市場が過去12か月で約17%の損失を出しましたが、中国新生命保険の株主は、配当を含む場合でも21%の損失を出しました。それにもかかわらず、落ち込んだ市場では、一部の株は過大評価されることは不可避です。鍵は基本的な動向に目を向けることです。残念ながら、昨年のパフォーマンスは悪かったため、株主は5年間で年間6%の累積損失に直面しました。一般的に、長期的な株価弱含みは悪い兆候であり、コントラリアン投資家は反転の可能性があるという期待を込めて株式を調査するかもしれません。市況が株価に与える異なる影響を慎重に考慮するのは十分に価値がありますが、より重要な要因もあります。例えばリスクを考えてください。すべての企業にはそれらがあります。New China Life Insuranceについて2つの警告サインを発見しましたので、知っておくべきです。
オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。
オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。