For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn't blame long term Huaan Securities Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600909) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 35% over a half decade. On the other hand the share price has bounced 5.2% over the last week.
On a more encouraging note the company has added CN¥987m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Huaan Securities actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 1.0% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, five years ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
Revenue is actually up 5.2% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Take a more thorough look at Huaan Securities' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Huaan Securities the TSR over the last 5 years was -20%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Huaan Securities shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 9.1% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 17%. Given the total loss of 4% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Huaan Securities better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Huaan Securities (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course Huaan Securities may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com