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Investing in LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE:LYB) Five Years Ago Would Have Delivered You a 53% Gain

ライオンデルバセルインダストリーズ(NYSE:nyse)への投資は5年前に53%の利益をもたらしました。

Simply Wall St ·  07/16 14:38

The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE:LYB) share price is up 14% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Looking at the last year alone, the stock is up 5.2%.

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, LyondellBasell Industries actually saw its EPS drop 10% per year.

Since the EPS are down strongly, it seems highly unlikely market participants are looking at EPS to value the company. The falling EPS doesn't correlate with the climbing share price, so it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that the dividend is higher than it was previously - always nice to see. Maybe dividend investors have helped support the share price. We'd posit that the revenue growth over the last five years, of 7.7% per year, would encourage people to invest.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

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NYSE:LYB Earnings and Revenue Growth July 16th 2024

LyondellBasell Industries is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, LyondellBasell Industries' TSR for the last 5 years was 53%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

LyondellBasell Industries shareholders are up 11% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 9% over half a decade It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for LyondellBasell Industries that you should be aware of before investing here.

But note: LyondellBasell Industries may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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