Comstock Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CRK) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. Unfortunately, Comstock Resources delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of US$247m were 15% below expectations, and statutory losses ballooned 153% to US$0.43 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Comstock Resources' seven analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$1.38b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 135% to US$0.16 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.39b and US$0.13 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Comstock Resources even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a considerable increase to per-share losses.

The consensus price target held steady at US$10.36, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Comstock Resources, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$13.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Comstock Resources shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Comstock Resources' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 1.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 24% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Comstock Resources is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Comstock Resources. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Comstock Resources' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$10.36, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Comstock Resources analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Comstock Resources that we have uncovered.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com