The Western Union Company (NYSE:WU) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.7% to US$11.89 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$1.1b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 7.1% to hit US$0.41 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Western Union provided consensus estimates of US$4.18b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a measurable 2.0% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$1.69, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.72 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$13.41. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Western Union at US$18.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that revenues are expected to keep falling until the end of 2024, roughly in line with the historical decline of 4.5% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.3% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Western Union is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Western Union going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Western Union you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com