Cintas' estimated fair value is US$619 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of US$757 suggests Cintas is potentially 22% overvalued
Analyst price target for CTAS is US$759, which is 23% above our fair value estimate
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Cintas Corporation (NASDAQ:CTAS) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
The Model
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$1.70b
US$1.88b
US$2.03b
US$2.29b
US$2.47b
US$2.62b
US$2.75b
US$2.87b
US$2.97b
US$3.07b
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x4
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 7.63%
Est @ 6.09%
Est @ 5.01%
Est @ 4.26%
Est @ 3.73%
Est @ 3.36%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.3%
US$1.6k
US$1.7k
US$1.7k
US$1.8k
US$1.8k
US$1.8k
US$1.8k
US$1.8k
US$1.7k
US$1.7k
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$17b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.3%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$83b÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)10= US$45b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$62b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$757, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NasdaqGS:CTAS Discounted Cash Flow August 4th 2024
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Cintas as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.922. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Cintas
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Dividend information for CTAS.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Commercial Services market.
Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
What else are analysts forecasting for CTAS?
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Cintas, we've put together three additional items you should explore:
Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Cintas .
Future Earnings: How does CTAS's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。