According to the Wisdom Wealth mobile app, Soochow Securities released a research report stating that global market share of foreign battery manufacturers has slightly decreased and their profitability is relatively low. In contrast, contemporary amperex technology (300750.SZ) has continued to increase its global market share, its profitability remains stable and it has a strong innovation gene and capability. It will break into the North American market by means of technology licensing in the future. The overall technological progress of domestic battery manufacturers is significant. Its products have significant cost advantages and it is accelerating its expansion in overseas markets. It is expected to enter a period of harvest in 2026.

LGES: Q2 profits have decreased, and the pace of building production capacity in North America is slowing down. LG Energy Solutions was developed from LG Chemicals and is focused on high-end square and cylindrical battery manufacturing, with Tesla and Volkswagen being its primary customers. In the first five months of 2024, its global installations reached 35.9GWh, which is a YoY increase of 5.6%, but its market share fell 2.1 percentage points to 12.6%. The Q2 operating profit margin was 3.2%, with a QoQ decrease of 2.1/+0.6 percentage points. The funds from IRA were ¥2.3 billion, with a MoM increase of 137%. The release of new car models by North American customers led to a substantial increase in subsidies. After subtracting subsidies, the operating profit margin was -4.1%, with a YoY decrease of 8.1/-3.6 percentage points, mainly due to the impact of raw material costs and utilization rates.

Samsung SDI: Signs the largest energy storage order in South Korea, with earnings expected to improve in the second half of the year. Samsung SDI is supported by South Korea's largest financial group and focuses on high-end square and cylindrical battery manufacturing, whose primary customers are BMW, Riva, Volkswagen, and Stellantis. In the first five months of 2024, its global installations reached 13.7GWh, with a market share of 4.8%, a YoY increase of 0.1 percentage points. In Q2 of 2024, its operating profit was ¥1.1 billion, with a QoQ decrease of -46%/-3%. The operating profit margin was 5.4%, with a QoQ decrease of -2.0/+0.7 percentage points. Due to the slowing demand for power businesses, earnings were lower than market expectations. Earnings are expected to improve in the second half of the year as P6 new products are launched and production volume increases.

Panasonic: Battery profits have partially recovered, and further improvements are expected in Q3. Panasonic is supported by Japan's third-largest financial group and focuses on high-end cylindrical battery manufacturing, whose primary customer is Tesla. In the first five months of 2024, its global installations reached 13.4GWh, which is a YoY decrease of 27.2%, and it's market share fell 3.2 percentage points to 4.7%. In Q2 of 2024, its battery operating profit was ¥1 billion, with a QoQ decrease of -27%/+71%, and its operating profit margin was 10.2%, with a QoQ decrease of -2.2/+5.3 percentage points. Fundings from IRA were ¥800 million, with a QoQ decrease of -22%/-28%. After subtracting subsidies, the operating profit margin was 2.2%, with a QoQ decrease of -1.6/+2.6 percentage points. Earnings have partially recovered. IRA-subsidized models will increase in Q3, and North American production is expected to rebound, with earnings continuing to improve.

SK Innovation: Q2 losses continue to increase, and the target is to balance profit and loss in Q4. SK Innovation was developed from the SK Group and focuses on high-end soft-pack battery manufacturing, whose primary customers are Hyundai and Mercedes-Benz. In the first five months of 2024, its global installations reached 13.9GWh, with a YoY increase of 4.9%, and its market share fell 0.8 percentage points to 4.9%. The operating loss was ¥2.39 billion, with a YoY increase in loss of 249.9% and a MoM increase in loss of 38.8%. The operating profit margin was -29.6%, with a QoQ decrease of -26.1/-9.9 percentage points. In Q2 of 2024, the IRA subsidy was ¥580 million, with a QoQ increase of 190.6%. After subtracting subsidies, the operating profit margin was -36.8%, with a QoQ decrease of -37.8/-14.8 percentage points.

Contemporary Amperex Technology: Its unit profits are steady and are higher than expected, which further separates itself from foreign battery manufacturers. In the first five months of 2024, contemporary amperex technology's global market share reached 37.5%, a YoY increase of 2.4%. Its overseas market share was 26.9%, surpassing LG Energy Solutions as the world's top provider. The company is expected to recover to 45%+ in the domestic market and to slightly increase to 35%+ in Europe over the course of 2024, while its US market share will maintain at 15%. Its profitability is also strong, with an average price of ¥0.77/wh and a gross profit margin of 26.5%. The single wh gross profit is ¥0.19, and the net profit of a single wh is nearly ¥0.1. The net profit margin is 14.2%, which leads the industry by almost 15 percentage points, reflecting the company's strong cost, technological, and scale advantages. Domestic battery prices have bottomed out, overseas prices can be maintained, and with the expected reduction in new capacity from H2 2024 to 2025, supply and demand will improve, allowing leading companies to have sustainable profitability.

投資アドバイス：海外バッテリーメーカーのグローバルシェアはわずかに低下し、利益率は比較的低いですが、将来的には北米市場に主に注力することになります。 一方、Contemporary Amperex Technologyはグローバルシェアを持続的に拡大し、利益率を安定させるとともに、強力な創造的遺伝子と能力を備えています。技術認定モデルを通じて北米市場を突破することで、国内のバッテリーメーカー全体が技術進歩を遂げ、製品はコスト優位性が高く、海外市場の展開を加速し、収穫期に入る見通しです。バッテリーの全体的な需要は、将来的には年複合成長率20-25％の見通しがあり、24年には1.1TWhの需要があり、24％成長します。そして30年までに近い4TWhに成長し、バッテリー産業の構造は安定し、コスト曲線はかなり急勾配であり、国内価格は底をついており、生産能力利用率が高まるにつれて、利益が拐点に達する見通しです。そのため、Soochow証券はリチウムイオンバッテリーセクターの投資機会に注目し、中国のリチウムイオンバッテリー企業の成長に期待しており、Contemporary Amperex Technologyを最初に推奨し、次にEVE Energy Co.、Sunwoda Electronicなどを推奨しています。

リスク警告：価格競争が市場の予想を超え、原材料価格の変動、投資の成長率の低下。