While Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE:FOR) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 19% in the last quarter. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 53%, less than the market return of 95%.

Although Forestar Group has shed US$172m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Forestar Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 16% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 9% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 7.36.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We know that Forestar Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Forestar Group will grow revenue in the future.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 16% in the last year, Forestar Group shareholders lost 8.7%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 9% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. If you would like to research Forestar Group in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

Of course Forestar Group may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.