In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Hengyi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000703) shareholders, since the share price is down 47% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 29%. Furthermore, it's down 15% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 12% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During five years of share price growth, Hengyi Petrochemical moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.
The modest 1.5% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. Revenue is actually up 7.8% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Hengyi Petrochemical more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Hengyi Petrochemical has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Hengyi Petrochemical stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Different Perspective
While it's certainly disappointing to see that Hengyi Petrochemical shares lost 14% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 19%. Given the total loss of 4% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Hengyi Petrochemical (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.
But note: Hengyi Petrochemical may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
