Investors in Stevanato Group S.p.A. (NYSE:STVN) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.3% to close at US$20.18 following the release of its quarterly results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of €260m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 11% to hit €0.082 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Stevanato Group after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, Stevanato Group's ten analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be €1.09b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be €0.46, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €1.13b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.48 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$27.16, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Stevanato Group's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Stevanato Group analyst has a price target of US$37.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$21.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Stevanato Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Stevanato Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Stevanato Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Stevanato Group (including 1 which is a bit concerning) .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.