These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. To wit, the Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE:ALLY) share price is 41% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 17% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 26% in three years.
Although Ally Financial has shed US$620m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over the last twelve months, Ally Financial actually shrank its EPS by 36%.
So we don't think that investors are paying too much attention to EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
Unfortunately Ally Financial's fell 9.6% over twelve months. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Ally Financial is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Ally Financial will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Ally Financial's TSR for the last 1 year was 46%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Ally Financial has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 46% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 9%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Ally Financial better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Ally Financial has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。
オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。