Henan Xinning Modern Logistics Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300013) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 49% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Logistics industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.2x, you may consider Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd as a stock probably not worth researching with its 2.1x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

How Has Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 22%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 48% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 15% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

The large bounce in Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Having said that, be aware Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.