Hallador Energy Company (NASDAQ:HNRG) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 30% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 44% in that time.

Following the heavy fall in price, Hallador Energy may be sending buy signals at present with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.5x, considering almost half of all companies in the Oil and Gas industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 1.9x and even P/S higher than 4x aren't out of the ordinary. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

What Does Hallador Energy's Recent Performance Look Like?

Recent times haven't been great for Hallador Energy as its revenue has been falling quicker than most other companies. Perhaps the market isn't expecting future revenue performance to improve, which has kept the P/S suppressed. So while you could say the stock is cheap, investors will be looking for improvement before they see it as good value. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

Is There Any Revenue Growth Forecasted For Hallador Energy?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as low as Hallador Energy's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 17%. Even so, admirably revenue has lifted 107% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 0.7% as estimated by the only analyst watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 6.7% growth, that's a disappointing outcome.

In light of this, it's understandable that Hallador Energy's P/S would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.

The Bottom Line On Hallador Energy's P/S

The southerly movements of Hallador Energy's shares means its P/S is now sitting at a pretty low level. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

As we suspected, our examination of Hallador Energy's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue is contributing to its low P/S. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless there's material change, it's hard to envision a situation where the stock price will rise drastically.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Hallador Energy, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.