Last week, you might have seen that Toast, Inc. (NYSE:TOST) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.4% to US$23.63 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.2b were what the analysts expected, Toast surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.02 per share, instead of the previously forecast loss. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Toast after the latest results.

After the latest results, the 24 analysts covering Toast are now predicting revenues of US$4.90b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 56% to US$0.11. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$4.88b and US$0.14 per share in losses. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a very favorable reduction to losses per share in particular.

The average price target held steady at US$27.60, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Toast, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$33.00 and the most bearish at US$19.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Toast shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Toast's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 25% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 39% p.a. growth over the last three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Toast's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Toast going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Toast that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.