Shareholders might have noticed that MGM China Holdings Limited (HKG:2282) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.6% to HK$11.10 in the past week. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 3.2%to hit HK$8.0b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the latest results, MGM China Holdings' 15 analysts are now forecasting revenues of HK$31.6b in 2024. This would be a credible 4.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 11% to HK$1.32. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of HK$31.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$1.30 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of HK$16.98, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on MGM China Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$19.30 and the most bearish at HK$12.50 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that MGM China Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 9.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.5% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 13% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, MGM China Holdings is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that MGM China Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$16.98, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MGM China Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for MGM China Holdings (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.