Long term investing is the way to go, but that doesn't mean you should hold every stock forever. We really hate to see fellow investors lose their hard-earned money. For example, we sympathize with anyone who was caught holding Zhejiang Great Shengda Packaging Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603687) during the five years that saw its share price drop a whopping 71%. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 39% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 41% in the last three months.
With the stock having lost 12% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Zhejiang Great Shengda PackagingLtd's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 15% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 22% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 17% in the twelve months, Zhejiang Great Shengda PackagingLtd shareholders did even worse, losing 39% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 11% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Zhejiang Great Shengda PackagingLtd that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course Zhejiang Great Shengda PackagingLtd may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
