Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Hongli Zhihui Group Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300219) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
What Is Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd had debt of CN¥951.5m at the end of March 2024, a reduction from CN¥1.06b over a year. However, it does have CN¥716.7m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥234.8m.
How Healthy Is Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd had liabilities of CN¥1.94b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥678.4m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥716.7m and CN¥1.43b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥469.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Given Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥4.07b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd has net debt of just 0.69 times EBITDA, suggesting it could ramp leverage without breaking a sweat. And remarkably, despite having net debt, it actually received more in interest over the last twelve months than it had to pay. So it's fair to say it can handle debt like a hotshot teppanyaki chef handles cooking. In fact Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 30% in the last twelve months. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
Our View
Neither Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd's ability to grow its EBIT nor its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Hongli Zhihui GroupLtd you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
