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OCBC Forecasts Higher GDP Growth For Malaysia In 2024, Keeps 2025 At 4.5%

Business Today ·  08/19 03:12

Notably, the Central Bank reported on the GDP growth which picked up to 5.9% YoY in 2Q24 versus 4.2% in 1Q24, taking 1H24 growth to 5.1%, supported by solid private consumption and export growth. OCBC in itts update,, has revises higher the 2024 GDP growth forecast to 5 % YoY from 4.2%. abd maintains its growth forecast of 4.5% for 2025.

OCBC said the details were encouraging with private sector spending and export growth were the biggest drivers of 2Q24 GDP growth. Specifically, the private sector contribution to headline GDP growth picked up to 5.7 percentage points (pp) in 2Q24 from 4.4pp in 1Q24, driven by consumption and investment spending. This more than offset the lower public sector contribution (0.8pp versus 1.3pp in 1Q24) driven mainly by consumption spending and consistent with fiscal consolidation priorities.

The forecast is for GDP growth to remain strong in 2H24, averaging 4.9% YoY versus 5.1% in 1H24, supported by the bottoming out of the global electronics downcycle, higher investment spending underscoring progress on the government's medium-term economic development plans and resilient household spending. This will be at the upper bound of the official 4-5% GDP growth target range for 2024. For 2025, we continue to expect the economy to grow by 4.5% YoY.

The house noted that measures undertaken by the authorities since late February are bearing fruit and the currency (MYR) has outperformed regional peers. BNM also noted that the daily average FX trading volume was higher (USD18bn) compared to prior to the measures (2 January – 23 February 2024: USD15bn).

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