While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the First Financial Bankshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIN) share price has gained 15% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 26% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
While the last three years has been tough for First Financial Bankshares shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
First Financial Bankshares saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 3.5% per year, over the last three years. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 10% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, First Financial Bankshares' TSR for the last 3 years was -22%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
First Financial Bankshares provided a TSR of 26% over the year (including dividends). That's fairly close to the broader market return. That gain looks pretty satisfying, and it is even better than the five-year TSR of 5% per year. Even if the share price growth slows down from here, there's a good chance that this is business worth watching in the long term. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.
First Financial Bankshares is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
