Expert Says 'Something Is Cracking A Little Bit In The Economy' As He Points Out Lower Hiring Rate, Rising Credit Card Delinquencies: 'Does That Turn Into Recession? Not Necessarily'
Neil Irwin, Chief Economic Correspondent at Axios, has identified various economic "warning signs" but assures recession is not yet here.
What Happened: During CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday, Irwin highlighted the "warning signs" such as credit card and auto loan delinquencies, low hiring rate, and price sensitivity among consumers.
"Does that turn into recession? Not necessarily," Irwin said.
"But it does tell you that something is cracking a little bit in the economy and the Fed, if they don't start moving, we will definitely be behind the curve."
.@Neil_Irwin sees lots of warning signs in the economy – from credit card and auto loan delinquencies to a lower hiring rate. "Does that turn into recession? Not necessarily," he says. "But it does tell you that something is cracking a little bit in the economy." pic.twitter.com/l72PN2wq9R
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) August 21, 2024
Why It Matters: Irwin's comments come amid a backdrop of concerning economic data. The U.S. economy saw a downward revision of 818,000 non-farm payrolls between April 2023 and March 2024, a 0.5% decrease in overall job gains for the year. This fall was greater than what major U.S. investment banks like Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) were expecting.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs recently revised its U.S. recession forecast, reducing the probability of a recession within the next 12 months to 20%. This adjustment came just two weeks after the bank increased the odds from 15% to 25% following a weaker-than-expected July jobs report.
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This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
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"But it does tell you that something is cracking a little bit in the economy and the Fed, if they don't start moving, we will definitely be behind the curve."
「しかし、それは経済の中で少し亀裂が入っていることを示しています。もしFedが動き始めなければ、私たちは明らかに遅れます」と彼は述べました。