As you might know, China Coal Energy Company Limited (HKG:1898) last week released its latest half-yearly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. China Coal Energy missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of CN¥93b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.81, falling short by 2.7% and 4.7% respectively. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for China Coal Energy from eight analysts is for revenues of CN¥189.6b in 2024. If met, it would imply a credible 7.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 9.1% to CN¥1.44. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥185.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.32 in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of HK$10.10, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Coal Energy at HK$11.66 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$8.51. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting China Coal Energy's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 15% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 0.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect China Coal Energy to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards China Coal Energy following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$10.10, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China Coal Energy going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for China Coal Energy (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.