Shangri-La Asia Limited (HKG:69) missed earnings with its latest half-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It looks like a clear earnings miss, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of US$1.0b missed by 12%, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.026 fell short of forecasts by 12%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, Shangri-La Asia's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$2.22b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 31% to US$0.054. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.35b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.061 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target fell 9.9% to HK$6.88, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Shangri-La Asia at HK$8.48 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$5.80. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Shangri-La Asia's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 3.2% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 1.1% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 12% per year. So although Shangri-La Asia's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Shangri-La Asia analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Shangri-La Asia that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
