Qingdao TGOOD Electric Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300001) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.0% to CN¥17.17 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues missed the mark, coming in 16% below forecasts, at CN¥3.8b. Statutory profits were a real bright spot in contrast, with per-share profits of CN¥0.13 being a notable 733% above what the analysts were modelling. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Qingdao TGOOD Electric are now predicting revenues of CN¥17.8b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 16% to CN¥0.66. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥18.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.66 in 2024. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The average price target was reduced 6.0% to CN¥23.24, with the lower revenue forecasts indicating negative sentiment towards Qingdao TGOOD Electric, even though earnings forecasts were unchanged. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Qingdao TGOOD Electric, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥33.00 and the most bearish at CN¥19.50 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Qingdao TGOOD Electric's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Qingdao TGOOD Electric's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 35% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 20% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Qingdao TGOOD Electric to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also downgraded Qingdao TGOOD Electric's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Qingdao TGOOD Electric going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Qingdao TGOOD Electric , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.