As you might know, China Film Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600977) recently reported its half-yearly numbers. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of CN¥0.14 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of CN¥2.1b came in 6.9% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, China Film's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be CN¥4.63b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 834% to CN¥0.54. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥6.32b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.54 in 2024. Indeed we can see that the consensus opinion has undergone some fundamental changes following the latest results, with a pretty serious reduction to revenues and some minor tweaks to earnings numbers.

The average price target was steady at CN¥11.08even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic China Film analyst has a price target of CN¥12.40 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥10.50. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2024. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 13% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 14% annually. Although China Film's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥11.08, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple China Film analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for China Film you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.