PVH Corp. (NYSE:PVH) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.9% to US$96.89 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$2.1b were what the analysts expected, PVH surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$2.80 per share, an impressive 24% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 16 analysts covering PVH, is for revenues of US$8.64b in 2025. This implies a discernible 2.7% reduction in PVH's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 14% to US$11.40 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$8.66b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.24 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 6.5% to US$129, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic PVH analyst has a price target of US$174 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$103. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await PVH shareholders.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.4% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.4% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - PVH is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of PVH's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple PVH analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see whether PVH is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
