After announcing healthy earnings, Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:301308) stock rose over the last week. While the headline numbers were strong, we found some underlying problems once we started looking at what drove earnings.

Examining Cashflow Against Shenzhen Longsys Electronics' Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to June 2024, Shenzhen Longsys Electronics recorded an accrual ratio of 0.47. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥4.2b despite its profit of CN¥361.9m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥4.2b, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Shenzhen Longsys Electronics' profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥120m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. If Shenzhen Longsys Electronics doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

Our Take On Shenzhen Longsys Electronics' Profit Performance

Shenzhen Longsys Electronics had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. Considering all this we'd argue Shenzhen Longsys Electronics' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. You'd be interested to know, that we found 2 warning signs for Shenzhen Longsys Electronics and you'll want to know about them.

Our examination of Shenzhen Longsys Electronics has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.