Shenzhen SEG Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000058) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 32% share price jump in the last month. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.
After such a large jump in price, given around half the companies in China's Real Estate industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.6x, you may consider Shenzhen SEGLtd as a stock to avoid entirely with its 4.6x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.
What Does Shenzhen SEGLtd's P/S Mean For Shareholders?
Shenzhen SEGLtd has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing revenue at a reasonable pace. Perhaps the market believes the recent revenue performance is strong enough to outperform the industry, which has inflated the P/S ratio. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Shenzhen SEGLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Shenzhen SEGLtd would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 6.4% gain to the company's revenues. Revenue has also lifted 15% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 12% shows it's noticeably less attractive.
With this information, we find it concerning that Shenzhen SEGLtd is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Shenzhen SEGLtd's P/S
The strong share price surge has lead to Shenzhen SEGLtd's P/S soaring as well. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
The fact that Shenzhen SEGLtd currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Shenzhen SEGLtd that we have uncovered.
If you're unsure about the strength of Shenzhen SEGLtd's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.