Citizens, Inc. (NYSE:CIA) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 27% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.
Even after such a large jump in price, given about half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may still consider Citizens as a highly attractive investment with its 6.9x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Citizens has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Is There Any Growth For Citizens?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Citizens' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 21%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the one analyst covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 14% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
With this information, we are not surprised that Citizens is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Key Takeaway
Even after such a strong price move, Citizens' P/E still trails the rest of the market significantly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Citizens maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Citizens with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.