The China Yuchai International Limited (NYSE:CYD) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 27%. Unfortunately, despite the strong performance over the last month, the full year gain of 5.8% isn't as attractive.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, given about half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may still consider China Yuchai International as an attractive investment with its 9x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, China Yuchai International has been doing quite well of late. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company's earnings are going to fall away like everyone else's soon. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on China Yuchai International.Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as China Yuchai International's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 15%. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with EPS shrinking 24% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 10% per annum as estimated by the two analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 10% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it odd that China Yuchai International is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.
The Bottom Line On China Yuchai International's P/E
China Yuchai International's stock might have been given a solid boost, but its P/E certainly hasn't reached any great heights. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
Our examination of China Yuchai International's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for China Yuchai International you should know about.
You might be able to find a better investment than China Yuchai International. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.