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Annil Co.,Ltd's (SZSE:002875) 25% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

annil co.,ltdの(SZSE:002875)の25%シェア価格の急騰はあまり合理的ではない

Simply Wall St ·  09/24 18:44

Annil Co.,Ltd (SZSE:002875) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 25% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking further back, the 16% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking AnnilLtd is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 3.9x, considering almost half the companies in China's Luxury industry have P/S ratios below 1.3x. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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SZSE:002875 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry September 24th 2024

What Does AnnilLtd's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at AnnilLtd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on AnnilLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is AnnilLtd's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as AnnilLtd's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 14%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 47% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 14% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that AnnilLtd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does AnnilLtd's P/S Mean For Investors?

The strong share price surge has lead to AnnilLtd's P/S soaring as well. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that AnnilLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for AnnilLtd that you need to take into consideration.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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