This week we saw the Shui On Land Limited (HKG:272) share price climb by 11%. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. In fact, the share price is down 59%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last five years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years over which the share price declined, Shui On Land's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 33% each year. The share price decline of 17% per year isn't as bad as the EPS decline. The relatively muted share price reaction might be because the market expects the business to turn around.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on Shui On Land's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Shui On Land's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Shui On Land's TSR of was a loss of 40% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
A Different Perspective
Shui On Land shareholders are down 6.9% for the year, but the market itself is up 14%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 7% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Shui On Land has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.