Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. For example, the United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) share price is up 39% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 32% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! However, the longer term returns haven't been so impressive, with the stock up just 13% in the last three years.
The past week has proven to be lucrative for United Airlines Holdings investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's one-year performance.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
United Airlines Holdings was able to grow EPS by 9.8% in the last twelve months. The share price gain of 39% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it a year ago.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of United Airlines Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that United Airlines Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 39% over the last year. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 6% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with United Airlines Holdings , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
United Airlines Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.